Assessing the US and Canadian neutral rates: 2025 update
We assess both the US and Canadian nominal neutral rates to be in the range of 2.25% to 3.25%, unchanged from the range assessed in 2024.
Find Bank of Canada research by keyword, author, content type, JEL code, topic or date of publication.
Receive notification by email whenever new research is added to the website.
2449
result(s)
Assessing global potential output growth: April 2025
Staff Analytical Note 2025-15
Samuel Boulanger,
Raheeb Dastagir,
Daniel de Munnik,
Eshini Ekanayake,
Kun Mo,
Walter Muiruri,
Faiza Noor,
Sabreena Obaid,
Louis Poirier
This note presents the annual update of Bank of Canada staff estimates for growth in global potential output. These estimates served as key inputs to the analysis supporting the April 2025 Monetary Policy Report.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Research Topic(s):
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E1,
E2,
F,
F0,
F1,
O,
O3,
O33,
O4
Potential output in Canada: 2025 assessment
Staff Analytical Note 2025-14
Selam Abraham,
Dany Brouillette,
Alex Chernoff,
Christopher Hajzler,
Stéphanie Houle,
Mark Kim,
Temel Taskin
We explore two scenarios for potential output growth to gain insights into the economic consequences associated with different possible trade policies. Scenario 1 includes limited US tariffs on Canadian exports. Scenario 2 adds a permanent, broad-based 25% increase in US tariffs on imports from all countries excluding Canada and Mexico.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Research Topic(s):
Economic models,
Labour markets,
Monetary policy,
Potential output,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
E,
E2,
E3,
E4,
E5
The Optimum Quantity of Central Bank Reserves
Staff Working Paper 2025-15
Jonathan Witmer
This paper analyzes the optimal quantity of central bank reserves in an economy where reserves and other financial assets provide liquidity benefits. Using a static model, I derive a constrained Friedman rule that characterizes the socially optimal level of reserves, demonstrating that this quantity is neither necessarily large nor small but depends on the marginal benefits of reserves relative to alternative safe assets.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Financial institutions,
Financial markets,
Financial system regulation and policies,
Monetary policy implementation
JEL Code(s):
E,
E4,
E41,
E42,
E5,
E58,
G,
G2,
G21,
G28
Partial Identification of Heteroskedastic Structural Vector Autoregressions: Theory and Bayesian Inference
Staff Working Paper 2025-14
Helmut Lütkepohl,
Fei Shang,
Luis Uzeda,
Tomasz Woźniak
We consider structural vector autoregressions that are identified through stochastic volatility. Our analysis focuses on whether a particular structural shock can be identified through heteroskedasticity without imposing any sign or exclusion restrictions.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Econometric and statistical methods,
Fiscal policy
JEL Code(s):
C,
C1,
C11,
C12,
C3,
C32,
E,
E6,
E62
The Shift in Canadian Immigration Composition and its Effect on Wages
Staff Discussion Paper 2025-8
Julien Champagne,
Antoine Poulin-Moore,
Mallory Long
We document recent changes in Canadian immigration, marked by an increasing prevalence of temporary residency. Using microdata from Statistics Canada's Labour Force Survey, we show that temporary workers' characteristics and nominal wages have diverged from those of Canadian-born workers.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Research Topic(s):
Labour markets,
Productivity
JEL Code(s):
J,
J2,
J20,
J24,
J6,
J61
A Fresh Look at the Publication and Citation Gap Between Men and Women: Insights from Economics and Political Science
Staff Working Paper 2025-13
Daniel Stockemer,
Gabriela Galassi,
Engi Abou-El-Kheir
In recent years, significant efforts have been made to attract more women into academia and to support their careers, with the goal of increasing their representation.
Are Hedge Funds a Hedge for Increasing Government Debt Issuance?
Staff Discussion Paper 2025-7
Adam Epp,
Jeffrey Gao
This paper studies the rapid increase since 2019 of Government of Canada (GoC) debt issuance alongside greater hedge fund participation at GoC bond auctions. We find a systematic relationship between GoC debt stock and hedge fund bidding shares at auction.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff discussion papers
Research Topic(s):
Debt management,
Financial institutions,
Financial markets,
Financial stability
JEL Code(s):
D,
D4,
D44,
G,
G1,
G12,
G2,
G23,
H,
H6,
H63
Canadians’ access to cash in 2023
Staff Analytical Note 2025-13
Heng Chen,
Hongyu Xiao,
Daneal O’Habib,
Stephen Wild
This study updates our measure of Canadians' access to cash through automated banking machines and financial institution branches. We find that in 2023 overall access to cash remains stable, while rural Canadians continue having less access.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff analytical notes
Research Topic(s):
Bank notes,
Financial services,
Regional economic developments
JEL Code(s):
J,
J1,
J15,
O,
O1,
R,
R5,
R51
Liquidation Mechanisms and Price Impacts in DeFi
Staff Working Paper 2025-12
Phoebe Tian,
Yu Zhu
This paper theoretically and empirically examines the price impacts of liquidations in DeFi and how different liquidation mechanisms affect the price impacts.
Content Type(s):
Staff research,
Staff working papers
Research Topic(s):
Digital currencies and fintech
JEL Code(s):
D,
D4,
D44,
D47,
G,
G2,
G20,
G3,
G33