June 5, 2025 Reaching out for a clearer view of the economy Speech summary Sharon Kozicki C.D. Howe Institute Toronto, Ontario Speaking a day after we decided to keep the policy interest rate at 2.75%, Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki discusses how we make better decisions by looking at a variety of data and talking with Canadians. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Speech summaries Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration
June 5, 2025 Talking to Canadians: How real-world insights shape monetary policy Remarks Sharon Kozicki C.D. Howe Institute Toronto, Ontario Deputy Governor Sharon Kozicki talks about how the Bank of Canada is using non-traditional data to better inform its monetary policy decisions. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Remarks Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Monetary policy and uncertainty, Recent economic and financial developments, Trade integration
May 8, 2025 Release of the Financial Stability Report Opening statement Tiff Macklem, Carolyn Rogers Ottawa, Ontario Press conference following the release of the Financial Stability Report. Content Type(s): Press, Speeches and appearances, Opening statements Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Debt management, Financial institutions, Financial markets, Financial stability, Financial system regulation and policies, International financial markets, Recent economic and financial developments
March 10, 2025 Price check: Inflation in Canada Sharon Kozicki, Jill Vardy, Laurence Savoie-Chabot Why prices change, and what it means for the economy. Content Type(s): Publications, The Economy, Plain and Simple Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Expectations, Inflation and prices, Inflation targets, Inflation: costs and benefits, Monetary policy framework, Monetary policy transmission, Price stability
Quantile VARs and Macroeconomic Risk Forecasting Staff Working Paper 2025-4 Stéphane Surprenant This paper provides an extensive evaluation of the performance of quantile vector autoregression (QVAR) to forecast macroeconomic risk. Generally, QVAR outperforms standard benchmark models. Moreover, QVAR and QVAR augmented with factors perform equally well. Both are adequate for modeling macroeconomic risks. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles JEL Code(s): C, C5, C53, C55, E, E3, E37
Differentiable, Filter Free Bayesian Estimation of DSGE Models Using Mixture Density Networks Staff Working Paper 2025-3 Chris Naubert I develop a method for Bayesian estimation of globally solved, non-linear macroeconomic models. The method uses a mixture density network to approximate the initial state distribution. The mixture density network results in more reliable posterior inference compared with the case when the initial states are set to their steady-state values. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Economic models JEL Code(s): C, C6, C61, C63, E, E3, E37, E4, E47
Does Unconventional Monetary and Fiscal Policy Contribute to the COVID Inflation Surge in the US? Staff Working Paper 2024-38 Jing Cynthia Wu, Yinxi Xie, Ji Zhang We assess whether unconventional monetary and fiscal policy implemented in response to the COVID-19 pandemic in the U.S. contribute to the 2021-2023 inflation surge through the lens of several different empirical methodologies and establish a null result. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Central bank research, Fiscal policy, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52, E6, E63
The Output-Inflation Trade-off in Canada Staff Discussion Paper 2024-7 Stefano Gnocchi, Fanny McKellips, Rodrigo Sekkel, Laure Simon, Yinxi Xie, Yang Zhang We explain how the Bank of Canada’s policy models capture the trade-off between output and inflation in Canada. We provide new estimates of the trade-off and contrast them with those in the Bank’s macroeconomic models. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff discussion papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy transmission JEL Code(s): E, E3, E31, E5, E52
Endogenous Credibility and Wage-Price Spirals Staff Working Paper 2024-14 Olena Kostyshyna, Tolga Özden, Yang Zhang We quantitively assess the risks of a wage-price spiral occurring in Canada over history. We find the risk of a wage-price spiral increases when the inflation expectations become unanchored and the credibility of central banks declines. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff working papers Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Credibility, Inflation and prices, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): C, C2, C22, E, E0, E00, E4, E47, E7
Benchmarks for assessing labour market health: 2024 update Staff Analytical Note 2024-8 Erik Ens, Alexander Lam, Kurt See, Gabriela Galassi We assess the health of the Canadian labour market. We find that it has seen gradual but material easing since 2023, amid some signs of structural changes. Content Type(s): Staff research, Staff analytical notes Research Topic(s): Business fluctuations and cycles, Econometric and statistical methods, Labour markets, Monetary policy JEL Code(s): E, E2, J, J2, J3, J6